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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 311737
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 31 Jul 2015 21:46:04 GMT

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila
]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane GUILLERMO (EP4/EP092015)
    ...GUILLERMO STILL RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 105 MPH WINDS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 31 the center of GUILLERMO was located near 12.7, -134.8 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane GUILLERMO

  • Hurricane GUILLERMO Public Advisory Number 8
    Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 312033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015 ...GUILLERMO STILL RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 105 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 134.8W ABOUT 1430 MI...2300 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 134.8 West. Guillermo is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today with a gradual decrease in forward speed on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Guillermo is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight or Saturday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Hurricane GUILLERMO Forecast Advisory Number 8
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 312032 TCMEP4 HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 134.8W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 134.8W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 134.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.3N 137.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.0N 140.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 142.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 144.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N 147.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 153.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 134.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Hurricane GUILLERMO Forecast Discussion Number 8
    Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 312033 TCDEP4 HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015 The satellite presentation has improved a little more during past few hours. Although the eye is much better defined on microwave, it is not completely clear on visible or infrared imagery. The average of intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS suggests an initial intensity of 90 kt. The current environment of low shear and a warm ocean is quite favorable for Guillermo to intensify further in the short term, and the NHC forecast brings the winds up to 100 kt within 12 hours. Beyond two days, the hurricane will begin to move into a less favorable shear environment as Guillermo approaches prevailing upper-level westerlies. By the end of the forecast period, when Guillermo is expected to be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, most of the guidance indicate that Guillermo should have weakened to a tropical storm, and so does the NHC forecast. The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward or 285 degrees at 16 kt. Guillermo will likely continue at this fast pace for another 24 to 36 hours while embedded within a layer of deep easterlies to the south of the subtropical ridge. After that time, the hurricane is expected to slow down as it approaches the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and encounters weaker steering currents. The latest multi-model consensus GFEX has shifted considerably northward primarily due to the fact that the ECMWF changed its tune, and is now closer to the northernmost GFS. On this basis, the NHC forecast is adjusted northward a little bit, but not as much as the consensus, in case the ECMWF changes its tune again tonight. The NHC forecast is on southern edge of the guidance envelope, and perhaps will have to be adjusted farther northward when new model runs become available. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 12.7N 134.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 13.3N 137.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.0N 140.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 14.8N 142.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 15.5N 144.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.0N 147.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 153.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Hurricane GUILLERMO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 312033 PWSEP4 HURRICANE GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 37(53) 12(65) X(65) X(65) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 9(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 4(22) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Hurricane GUILLERMO Graphics
    Hurricane GUILLERMO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2015 20:35:07 GMT

    Hurricane GUILLERMO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2015 21:04:45 GMT ]]>


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