Tropical Cyclone Activity

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 220544
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
moving over the Leeward Islands remains limited and disorganized.
Interaction of the low with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will
likely inhibit significant development through tonight.  However,
environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for
development when the disturbance moves near or over the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend or by early next week.  Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected
across portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands today, and over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas
tonight and Saturday. Interests in those islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 22 Aug 2014 05:44:49 GMT

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220536
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii; on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about
850 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula;
and on newly formed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located a few
hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Berg

]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
    ...KARINA DRIFTING EASTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 the center of KARINA was located near 14.8, -136.5 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm KARINA

  • Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 37
    Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 220236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 ...KARINA DRIFTING EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 136.5W ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1820 MI...2935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 37
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 220235 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.1N 135.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.7N 135.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 136.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 37
    Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220236 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 Deep convection has continued to develop near the center of Karina, especially in the southern semicircle, and the low-level center is embedded in the middle of the more circular cloud shield. Two earlier ASCAT passes showed 50 kt and 52 kt peak surface winds to the southeast of the center, so the intensity has been bumped up to 55 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 090/02 kt based on microwave satellite positions over the past several hours. After nearly three days of saying the same thing in our discussions, there isn't much more to add. Karina will gradually get pulled eastward and northeastward by the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell, as the latter cyclone passes to the northeast of Karina in 2-3 days. The majority of the NHC track guidance is now indicating a considerably slower forward speed on Days 4 and 5 as Karina weakens over cold water and becomes more vertically shallow. The official advisory track is similar to but a little faster than the consensus model TVCE out of respect for the faster GFS model. Recent microwave images continue to show a partial eyewall structure. The vertical shear is forecast to subside to around 5 kt during the next 12 hours, so there is a brief window of opportunity for Karina to strengthen. However, the vertical shear is forecast to increase again at 24 hours and beyond as the cyclone begins to move over cooler water. This combination of unfavorable conditions should induce gradual weakening, with the Karina becoming a non-convective remnant low pressure by 96 hours when the cyclone is moving over 22-23C sea-surface temperatures and into a much cooler and drier airmass. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus model ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 14.8N 136.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 15.1N 135.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 15.7N 135.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
  • Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 220236 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
    Tropical Storm KARINA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 02:37:43 GMT

    Tropical Storm KARINA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 03:05:46 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm LOWELL (EP2/EP122014)
    ...LOWELL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 the center of LOWELL was located near 20.9, -122.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm LOWELL

  • Tropical Storm LOWELL Public Advisory Number 17
    Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 220243 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 ...LOWELL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 122.8W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Advisory Number 17
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220242 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.8W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB EYE DIAMETER 75 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.8W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 123.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.9N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 28.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 17
    Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220246 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 Lowell as now weakening as about half of the circulation is over sea surface temperatures of 26C or colder. While microwave imagery continues to show a 75 n mi wide eye, the eyewall convection has warmed and become asymmetric. Satellite intensity estimates are now 55 kt from TAFB and 65 kt from SAB. The initial intensity is therefore decreased to 60 kt. The storm is now moving 325/5. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Lowell should move a little faster toward the northwest due to a ridge rebuilding to the east and north of the cyclone. Late in the period a shallower Lowell should be steered more toward the west-northwest by the low-level ridge to the north. There is no significant change to the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track lies close to the previous track and near the center of the guidance envelope. Lowell is expected to remain in a light shear environment for the next few days, with the intensity being controlled by decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and calls for Lowell to become a remnant low in about 72 hours. It is possible that the associated convection could dissipate earlier than currently forecast, with Lowell briefly becoming a gale-force post-tropical low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 20.9N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 21.7N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 23.9N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z 28.5N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm LOWELL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220243 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm LOWELL Graphics
    Tropical Storm LOWELL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 02:48:19 GMT

    Tropical Storm LOWELL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 03:06:31 GMT ]]>

Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E (EP3/EP132014)
    ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 the center of THIRTEEN-E was located near 12.4, -99.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E

  • Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
    Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 220253 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 99.0W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION AND ITS STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SATURDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCB TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 99.0W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 99.0W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 98.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 99.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN ]]>
  • Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
    Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220255 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery, along with scatterometer surface wind data, indicate that the large low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has become better organized during the past several hours. Curved bands of deep convection have developed near the well-defined center, and the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, which is supported by winds of 31 kt and 30 kt noted in two earlier ASCAT overpasses. Upper-level outflow is good in all quadrants and has been expanding. The initial motion estimate of 295/12 kt is based on microwave fix positions over the past 9 hours. The NHC model guidance is tightly clustered and in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving west-northwestward and remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico throughout the forecast period. This is due to a strong subtropical ridge anchored over the southern U.S. and northern Mexico. The NHC track forecast closely follows the consensus model TVCE. The cyclone is expected to remain in very favorable thermodynamic and oceanic environments that will be conducive for development. The official intensity forecast is fairly robust, but not nearly as aggressive as the SHIPS model, which brings the system to category 4 strength in 96 hours. The NHC forecast more closely follows the intensity consensus model ICON, making the cyclone a hurricane in 48 hours and brings it to near major hurricane status by Day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 12.4N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
  • Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 26(54) 4(58) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 2(26) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 10(47) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN ]]>
  • Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Graphics
    Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 04:25:43 GMT

    Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 03:07:16 GMT ]]>


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