Tropical Cyclone Activity
Current Atlantic Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 202325 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers near and to the southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for development, and tropical cyclone formation is not likely. However, the low is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 20 Sep 2014 23:53:22 GMT
Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
ABPZ20 KNHC 202301
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located about a hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.
An area of disturbed weather located a couple hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Tropical Storm Tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm POLO (EP2/EP172014)
...POLO PASSING SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 20 the center of POLO was located near 21.4, -109.7 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm POLO
Tropical Storm POLO Public Advisory Number 19A
Issued at 500 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 202338 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 500 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014 ...POLO PASSING SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 109.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THIS EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Advisory Number 19
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 202035 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 2100 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 109.4W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 109.4W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 111.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.3N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 202037 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014 Polo is a sheared cyclone, and the cloud pattern consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with intermittent deep convection. The initial intensity is kept at 40 kt at this time, but given the hostile environment and the cooler waters, weakening is forecast. Polo will likely become a remnant low in about 36 hours. Polo has been moving between northwest and west-northwest since yesterday at about 5 to 7 kt. The cyclone is trapped south of an amplifying mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this pattern should force Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track for the next 2 to 3 days, and then the remnant low should meander until dissipation. The NHC forecast has not changed, and continues to be very close to the multi-model consensus. Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force winds are anticipated to remain south of the Baja California peninsula. Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring tropical storm force winds to the coast, the Government of Mexico is keeping the tropical storm watch until Polo begins to move away from Baja California Sur. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 21.2N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 22.0N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 22.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 21.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
Tropical Storm POLO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 202037 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 2100 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
Tropical Storm POLO Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Sep 2014 23:39:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Sep 2014 21:04:47 GMT ]]>
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