Tropical Cyclone Activity

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 292338
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited.  This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression tonight or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 30 Jul 2014 00:04:13 GMT

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days as this system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has formed in association
with a low pressure system about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system
during the next several days as the low moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)
...HERNAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 29
 the center of HERNAN was located near 23.5, -121.1
 with movement WNW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 291438
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...HERNAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 121.1W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


]]>
Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 291438
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 121.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HERNAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



]]>
Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291439
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GOES-15 shortwave infrared imagery shows that Hernan's surface
circulation has become elongated (north to south) and ill-defined.
The post-tropical cyclone has been devoid of significant deep
convection for over 12 hours, and regeneration is not likely due to
sea surface temperature of less than 24 deg C.  The winds associated
with the remnant low should continue to decrease, with dissipation
of the system expected in a couple of days.

The initial motion has been along a persistent west-northwest
direction, or 300/13 kt, within the low- to mid-level flow on the
periphery of the subtropical ridge to the northeast.  This general
motion should continue until the system dissipates in 48 hours.  The
NHC forecast is similar to that from the previous package and
follows the TVCE consensus.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  For additional
information on the remnant low of Hernan, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 23.5N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


]]>
Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 291438
PWSEP3
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014               
1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  

]]>
Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Jul 2014 14:45:20 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Jul 2014 15:04:43 GMT ]]>


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