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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221152
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nine, located over the eastern Bay of Campeche.

A large non-tropical low, located over the northeastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles south of the western Azores, continues to
produce showers and winds to gale force. While this system has
recently become slightly better organized, environmental conditions
are forecast to become less conducive for development by Thursday
while it meanders. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092014)
    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 the center of NINE was located near 19.4, -92.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression NINE

  • Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 3
    Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 221452 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 92.4W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 3
    Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 221452 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.4W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.4W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.3N 91.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.8N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.5N 87.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 92.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 3
    Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 221453 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 Satellite images and data from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the depression has not strengthened since yesterday. The circulation remains well defined but the convection is not well organized, although new thunderstom activity is currently developing near the center. The cyclone continues to be affected by moderate westerly shear which should limit development. However, it is still expected to become a tropical storm before moving inland over the Yucatan peninsula where weakening is anticipated. If the depression emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about 3 days, there is an opportunity for some strengthening. Most of the global models, primarily the GFS and the HWRF, forecast a favorable upper-level environment for the system to redevelop, if the the cyclone survives its path over land. On this basis, the NHC forecast now maintains tropical depression status through five days. Steering currents are weak, and the depression has been meandering during the past few hours. The cyclone is located at the base of a mid-level trough, and most likely the depression will drift eastward for the next 3 days while on the south side of the trough. Once in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the trough is forecast to lift out and a narrow ridge will develop to the north of the cyclone. This synoptic pattern should keep the cyclone with little motion in the northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the forecast period. However, the final portion of the NHC forecast continues to be highly uncertain, and is based on the blend of the GFS, ECMWF and HWRF model solutions. Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not directly related to the tropical depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 19.4N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 19.3N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 18.8N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 18.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1200Z 18.5N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 18.5N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
    Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 221453 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) BELIZE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
    Tropical Depression NINE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 14:53:43 GMT

    Tropical Depression NINE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 15:04:44 GMT ]]>

Eastern Pacific


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Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221153
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

]]>

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 22 Oct 2014 15:09:21 GMT


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